This series, produced by Alianza Americas, brings together specialists to analyze the political moment Honduras is experiencing following the 2025 elections.

Over two sessions, the series examines the country's structural tensions, the functioning of its institutions, and the challenges it faces amid growing polarization and democratic erosion.

You can watch the recording of the event here:

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Session I: The Challenges of the Elections and the Transition‍

In this conversation, sociologist and political analyst Elvin Hernández, from the Reflection, Research, and Communication Team (ERIC) in Honduras, offers a detailed analysis of the November 2025 Honduran elections, a vote marked by what he describes as a profound crisis of electoral governance.

The process was plagued by irregularities—ranging from ballot boxes failing to reach their intended destinations to a 20-day delay in the release of official results—all occurring within a system in which the councilors of the National Electoral Council answer not to the voters but to the owners of the political parties that appointed them.

Hernández identifies a landscape of key actors that includes financial elites; military leaders whose stance shifted following a closed-door meeting with the U.S. Southern Command; a media apparatus controlled by the country's wealthiest sectors; religious institutions that politically mobilized their congregations; organized crime groups that influenced voting patterns in territories under their control; and the direct intervention of President Trump, who—just 72 hours before the elections—published messages indicating who voters should support and who they should reject.

All of this unfolds in a country where more than 84% of the population distrusts political parties and the Congress, and where remittances, exceeding 25% of the GDP, have fostered a dependency on the United States that was instrumentalized to manipulate the vote through false promises regarding TPS (Temporary Protected Status) and immigration raids. Looking ahead, Hernández warns that Honduras faces the consolidation of what he describes as an authoritarian regime with a conciliatory facade: a president with a documented history of corruption, including mentions in the Panama Papers and allegations of the irregular handling of municipal funds, whose governance strategy rests on media control, the backing of religious institutions, a pact between the Liberal and National parties, the support of financial elites linked to mining and hydroelectric extraction, and a reconstituted military featuring figures from the Juan Orlando Hernández era.

The analyst points out that the current electoral law is a "caudillo-builder" that enables the perpetuation of political dynasties, with deputies re-elected up to eight times and mayors holding office for over two decades. He further underscores the urgent need to scrutinize the National Congress, where decisions are currently being made regarding the privatization of public services, extractive concessions, and a potential return to the ICSID, as well as the threat to the secular nature of the State posed by religious sectors seeking to gain access to public office.

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Session II: Challenges for the Country and the Next Government

In this second session, we speak with Joaquín Mejía, a Spanish-Honduran lawyer holding a PhD in Human Rights from Carlos III University in Madrid, a researcher with the ERIC Reflection, Research, and Communication Team, and the Deputy Coordinator of the Legal Team for Human Rights.

With over two decades of experience in international litigation and in accompanying communities, Mejía offers an analysis that frames the Honduran situation within a global wave of autocratization. According to the V-Dem report from the University of Gothenburg, 72% of the world's population currently lives under autocracies, the highest figure since 1978, and for the first time in 20 years, there are more autocracies (91) than democracies (88) worldwide.

Honduras, he warns, is not merely undergoing a simple change of government, but rather a change of era. This shift is marked by "democratic fatigue"—where more than 50% of the population in the Northern Triangle is willing to tolerate democratic backsliding if their immediate problems are resolved—and by an authoritarian restoration cloaked in electoral guise. This restoration aligns with the global rise of the far right, ranging from CPAC to organizations such as the Center for Fundamental Rights, an entity funded by Orbán’s party with over 11 million euros in a single year.

Mejía analyzes how, in just one month of governance, the ultraconservative bloc in Congress—comprising the National Party, the Liberal Party, and defectors from the Libre party—has violated the Constitution at least twice. These violations include a reform that interferes with the judiciary in order to divvy up the appointment of judges, as well as the passage of an "economic reactivation" law that prohibits legal recourse against arbitrary dismissals, a measure that runs counter to international court rulings. The analysis reveals a latent tension between Asfura’s factions and the far-right figure linked to Juan Orlando Hernández, who controls Congress, manifesting in threats of impeachment proceedings against the Attorney General, the President of the Supreme Court, and the electoral councilor from the Libre party, a figure whom the Inter-American Court itself has already declared to be in violation of due process in a ruling against Honduras.

Meanwhile, civil society organizations that were fierce critics of the previous administration either remain silent or lend legitimacy to the new government, while human rights organizations face a brutal funding crisis in the face of conservative counterparts possessing multimillion-dollar resources.

Mejía concludes by proposing a unifying minimum agenda: a citizen-led demand, pursued through a legislative initiative or plebiscite, to establish the International Commission against Corruption and Impunity (CICI). This demand cuts across all of the country’s structural problems, from extractivism and territorial militarization to forced migration, and has the potential to unite both the domestic citizenry and the Honduran diaspora.

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The current situation in Honduras reflects challenges that extend far beyond the electoral process. Tensions among institutions, political actors, and citizen demands underscore the fragility of the democratic system and the need to strengthen mechanisms for participation, transparency, and accountability.

Understanding this context is crucial to supporting the country's social and political processes and to fostering responses that prioritize human rights, justice, and the well-being of the Honduran population.

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